Dr. Neil Swart of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling & Analysis says a new model predicts nearly 8°C of heating by 2100 in a high emissions scenario.
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Keep up with the Geoenginerring, see how that works! Oh, and if you are, could you give me a heads up, cause at the rate your drying up the planet I'll need to start stockpiling water, thanks.
What nonsense – we're already at 1.5C IF you use the baseline of what the IPCC used to corretly use of 1750
They're skulls are shaped very differently
Better models, that say what I knew already. Just calculate current median trends and you come up to around 1,95C without any further emissions… (La Niña, solar radiation, aerosols, 1750's as baseline, … Just middle ground effects, because we are currently on low end of these.) And we are still emitting more and more each year… Around 675Gt more emissions if we decide to carbon zero in 2050, and we don't have many countries that are really going for that. And these emissions are not including permafrost melt, forest floor changes, large forest fires, forest losses, ocean floor emissions (bubbling already), …
Yeap, it is hard to see that we can stay below 2C warming and 2,4C is a realistic prediction if we are going to do almost everything that we can to stop any further human effects to climate change. And if we keep burning more fossil fuels, then we go way higher.
We have already made farming more than 40% harder in sub-Saharan region and that was under 1C warming, so further warming will make farming conditions even harder. And this affects us all, just think food prices, farming becoming harder elsewhere too and how many wars happen in those regions with millions of migrants heading north.
When emissions are reduced, masking aerosols are reduced so the earth keeps warming. Unless we find some way to put masking aerosols into the air while reducing CO2, it just won’t work.
I bet it's gonna be even worse than that. I'm betting on 10°C to 14°C of warming by 2100 and possibly up to 18°C of warming overall.
Just a hunch based on we have a tendency to repeatedly underestimate the consequences of global warming.
Collapse of modern civilization is coming quickly, it's September 2020, nine months after this video aired, and the climate is just going nuts, planet wide, plus a global pandemic…We need not worry about 2100….Our civilization won't make it past 2030, or will barely make it past then…It's just blantantly obvious, minus the denial….The rate of change and human behavior has doomed the life on earth that allows for us to exist….We are Great Filter Fodder……..
WHAT NEW MODEL! THis is not NEW! The status QUO did not follow the facts. IT IS NOT NEW! WHAT A SCAM. ALl you need to know is Co2 2 ppm at 718 and climbing case closed!
Make ice cap thick 5 meters….what does model say then? 10 meet thickened ice cap. Now we pro e lower temperature? We must attempt?
no, not 2100. he knows that it will be in our lifetime but you can see it in his nervous eyes. we ALL will witness horror in or lifetime. Not in 80 years, but in a few years we might reach 8 and more. note: 4C alone (we are at 2 above 1750 baseline already; Carana, March 2020) means: total extinction of the homo sapiens and practically all life on earth. It will happen and we can do nothing to "fix" this. so, enjoy your life as long as you can. there is nothing you can do.
Earth is already at 2 °C above 1750 baseline (march 2020). siberia is melting and will suddenly release enough methane to increase the temperature for another at least 1°C in a matter of DAYS/WEEKS. This can happen at ANY time. If you watch this guy closely, he thinks twice before answering and is super careful. obviously he iwas told not to tell the full truth. He is extremely nervous and knows that we as a species will go extinct, very very soon. (approx. 1-3 years at most, probably before, once the artic is ice free and permafrost releases gigatons of methane into the atmosphere due to extreme heat as you see now in Siberia) and the climate effects that comes with it (jetstream etc.)
The increase in temperature is irreversible, locked in, and so rapid that all mammals, most insects and organisms we depend upon for our own survival and including us of course, will die of starvation and other causes, because grains cannot catch up with this rapid increase etc.
the truth as I know from certain circles,, is this: there is nothing we can do. It can be a matter of months or a year or perhaps 2 more if we are lucky. but what will a few months or year change? We as a species will go extinct. how it will look like? the corona virus was a soft test for you all. there will be less and lesser from now on, consumerism is dead, there will be massive global crop failures this summer (they increase every summer and less is produced already) which will lead to mass starvation all over the world and also in all so called first world industrialized countries as well.
how long can one human live without food? now make the maths and multiply with 7 billions and lets say 3-7 days. or maybe 20 days? the counter will go up with 100s of millions dying per day.
Everything is over very quickly without food around, right?
governments know that all is over. they just keep the show going on, because nothing can be done anyway. they will first ration the food, but it will not be enough for all.one day you will wake up and grocery stores will be empty. if you think that prepping and storing grains will save you, think again. nothing will grow. all that prepping will just give you weeks or months in a dark bunker with people who will go insane and after that you will die like billions of others.
shortly before the climate apocalypse kicks in, a global war will be set in motion. every power want to make sure, to get as many resources as possible to exist a while longer. but that is meaningless, because everyone, every plant, every grain, insects, animals will vanish. there will no one to man tanks, nuclear reactors (final coffin nail for the next million years) or coal mines.noone around to exploit anything. Over.
It's over. 270 years of industrial civilization, ridiculous consumeristic life style and greed was enough to get us to this point.
Why is the IPCC estimate always so far behind reality? What good is low balling?
It would be more useful for humans to be told about rises in the temperature that are going to occur shortly–like in the next 10 years–instead of couching the projections as happening by 2100. When you place your prediction so far in the future it becomes unreal to people today.
2100! HUH? These IPCC models completely ignore the prediction by every group that the N.POLE Melts complete before 2030 and when it does it aint coming back! When this happens all that Air conditioning affect of N. Hemisphere is gone! No, you wont burn up you just eat! Weather will go crazy and no large scale food production. No science group disputes any of this! They bicker on time scales and are always shorting the dates!
2100 try 2030
who cares. we can buy more air conditioners.problem solved.
The models would be a lot more accurate if they included the effects of longstanding Stratospheric Solar Radiation Management!
There are no mitigation efforts underway right now. The only thing that is trying to be done is slow the emissions growth rate. Why would you keep asking about the least probable curve? You should be focusing on the most probable curve which is business as usual- heck, the EPA just pulled all regulations in the USA for polluters and told them to regulate themselves. Of course, a complete shutdown of the economy could reduce the Co2 growth rate, but that is not likely. Be honest, we will be at 3c above pre-industrial by 2030 at the current rate, and if you give credence to the concept of aerosol masking, we could be at +3c by this summer because of the MASSIVE reduction in industrial activity/commerce that is happening right now. I bet neither of these scenarios that are actually happening were in the model, because no one is allowed to tell the truth in this current system for fear of being cut out of the system. It's classic herd mentality where everyone puts their head in the sand, lest they become a target of the predator- PROFIT!.
Rain forest on the verge of collapse, first arctic blue ocean event coming this summer, end of ocean currents, drastic change of atmospheric wind patterns with the end of the arctic vortex. Near 60% of great barrier reef corral bleached white and dead as it is all around the world. Photo plankton and algae the true lungs of the world dying off in the oceans from higher acidic levels due to acid rain caused by the burning of coal. The Himalayan ice sheet almost melted so that Pakistan and India will be nuking each other for what little freshwater runoff remains and a plutocratic trump who will call for martial law due to the pandemic and postpone the presidential elections just as Netan the yahoo has taken over Israeli government right now. And yes the coronavirus pandemic will destroy possible 60% of life and the economic crises will lead to a world war. Welcome the trump tower 666 5th Ave and the end of days.
if this is true we are totally fucked 😂😂😂
2030 is the end… hint: Permafrost going away.
Note that this video was posted Dec 10, 2019
and the plot at 0:34 ends at July 2011 so 8.5 years earlier (really old plot) so doesn't include the large 2015/16 El Nino and the GMST after that didn't go down as far as it was at before of course so now the GMST goes pretty much smack dab through the middle of those CMIP model ouputs. The plot is highly misleading because it's too old.
This comment is for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn4PoLOmCME
"joseph dalton" typed "When all the planes were grounded, in the U.S., after 9/11, a slight increase in temperature was noted over North America".
———-
I call you out on that because I've only read 1 paper on that topic and it made no assessment whatsoever as to whether the average temperature over the 72 hours or whatever it was was higher or lower than it would have been with the usual aircraft contrails. The paper didn't even attempt to do that and the lead author clearly stated why not both in the paper and verbally in a snippet I heard in a BBC (British) "science magazine" bit about aerosols. So prove you aren't lying by providing a reference to the different scientific paper that you mention and I'll read it. Else you're just another liar promulgating false science disinformation.
This comment is for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=facaKbchOjQ
Oh Dear. Once more into the breach to try to stem the tide of puerile drivel.
Guy McPherson at 16:33 "temperature spike of 1 degree Celsius
".
Guy McPherson at 16:40 "I'm talking about days or weeks".
So neither the hopeless infotainment host "Dr. Shawn Baker" nor any of the dozens (is it hundreds now ?) down here in comments has any curiosity at all about the topics "Earth's ecosphere heating", "global warming", "heat", "temperature", and none of you including Guy McPherson have the basic understanding of thermodynamics of a 12 year old British grammar school child. I'm not putting all the wording together describing the thermodynamics of this system now. This is a placeholder to remind me. So "temperature spike of 1 degree Celsius
" is cute because there's temperature spikes of 10 degrees Celsius
in my garden for ~30% of the last 100 days due to less sunshine at night (zero in fact) so without McPherson saying how long his projected "temperature spike of 1 degree Celsius
" lasts it's impossible to debunk his "science" because nobody knows what his "science" is due to the temporal width of the spike not being stated. I'm going to pretend that McPherson doesn't mean a "temperature spike" at all but he means a "temperature jump" and he doesn't believe in saying what he means <<<<(you know, what with him not being a WG1 climate scientist giving a careful talk, not even close, and instead babbling away his cherry-picked extremes of utterly-minuscule likelihood and pretending they are the meaty central estimate as in "20% maybe even less" at 16:28 where he pretends that the 35% worst case of the 35%-80% range in the paper is the meaty central estimate, divides it by 2 per the later paper asserting 198% of the former cloud effect, and says "20% maybe even less", totally ignoring the meaty central estimate and the other (least bad extreme) and using only the worst extreme end which is 2.3x as bad as the best extreme end, then saying "maybe even less")>>>>.
I digressed because McPherson's babbling irritates me hugely (and I had to return to it to get precise quotes & video timing – yuck) because I've heard ~700 hours of real informational talks by WG1 climate scientists. So, thermodynamics. So McPherson's at 16:40 "I'm talking about days or weeks" informs me with certainty that:
– McPherson and none of the commenters down here have any education in thermodynamics.
– McPherson et al here think planet Earth has no atmosphere.
– McPherson et al here think planet Earth has no ocean.
– McPherson et al here think planet Earth has no air circulation currents (the wind).
– McPherson et al here think planet Earth has no land that interrupts the ocean (which you all think that Earth doesn't have anyway).
– McPherson et al here think that there's no such thing as Arctic region snow/ice reduction albedo reduction.
They think that the 50% +ve feedback for it doesn't exist and is just made up.
– McPherson et al here think that water vapour (H2O) is not a so-called "greenhouse gas (GHG)" at all.
They think that's just made up.
– McPherson et al here think that there's no such thing as "climate lag" (the warming that's "in the pipeline"). You think that's hoaxer rubbish (I mean the 400,000 gigawatts).
– McPherson et al here think that there's no such thing as "surface climate response" even though some Jim Hansen geezer whoever he is shows it at 9:55 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP-cRqCQRc8
For reason of Guy McPherson's "I'm talking about days or weeks" at 16:40 meaning at least the 8 assumptions I've listed above are part of their WG1 climate science understanding both McPherson, host "Dr. Shawn Baker" and every single one of you in the comments down here who isn't a pointless standard level 0 uneducated (bottom-of-toilet level) coal/oil shill-fuckwit is an uneducated idiot with a brain consisting of shit & wet cabbage (no capacity for a logical thought process).
Make sure you actually watch the whole video
"If you compare what has been promised currently by governments around the world, what of the commitments that have been made, these commitments are not enough for us to achieve certainly a 1.5 degree target, and likely not a 2 degree target, but the'll likely put us on track for 3 degrees of warming"
So yeah 8 degrees is a big number, but its also an UNREALISTIC scenario, and while we cannot stop pushing for more to be done than we are planning to do, you do not need to be thinking cataclysmic thoughts.
And it's always into 2100 and it's going to be earlier just wait and see or politicians has to do something
Well… we NEED OCEAN REFERTILISATION immediately!
Not one of the ipcc models have been correct, click bait only.
Killer Ape's death knell ringing! But have faith Trump's pick of economic appointees to scientific organizations assure us all that climate change is just a hoax created by the progressive left to hurt the good rich elite people who just want to make more and more money. Soon it won't be world leaders laughing at us but the World itself. Well, 8 degrees Celcius warming which is 14.4 degrees Fahrenheit rise in temperature. That means we can kiss our ass goodbye. The methane hydrate will be released and it will rise another 5 degrees Celcius or 9 degrees Fahrenheit and that equals the level of warmth in the Permian extinction 250 million years ago. Which means death for most life on the planet. But don't worry! Be happy it's your great-grandchildren that will die in the future unless they can get small as a rat, or get such a low metabolism and reduce their oxygen requirements. But evolution doesn't work that fast. Ah, that's right evolution is a lie also. Jesus will come back and saaaaaavvvvvvveeeee usssssssss bbbbaaaaahhhhhh! So we can do whatever we want and will be taken to heaven before we die bbbbaaaahhhhhhhh! Don the Con Trump is our glorious leader bbbbaaaaaahhhhhh!
When people save money to buy land and plant a forest instead of a new car every few years,when people start loving themselves in a whole different way,when people get the courage to be honest with themselves,when people find humility only then Earth will forgive them.
This is like a coastal town getting ready for a Cat 5 hurricane. Shop owners start to put plywood over their windows a day before the storm arrives. The whole building will be destroyed along with the windows, but it makes the owners feel happier. The World needed to be doing something when Greta's grandparents were 17 yrs old not now.
This is the duh. No s*** reality, we should have really transitioned to renewables already… We were warned. Few listened. Solar, evs, carbon capture STAT or its extinction.
If you believe anything from the Canadian bought and paid for "Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis", you really need to read the following message:
Most, if not all the scientists that are paid by governments are biased and in order to keep their jobs and funding they will skew their research results to mirror the numbers or scenarios that their masters (government employers) want. Unwanted results = no funding (no job). If you want to keep your job, you give them what they want. Do some research and you will find that the scientists with no skin in the game will tell you that there is no climate emergency. Also, look who the "climate emergency scenario" benefits the most. You will find that it is benefiting the wealthy. If you are serious about lowering CO2, go after the countries that pollute the most. The 2017 numbers: China, U.S.A. and, India. The people that it will negatively impact are the poor in developing countries. If these people don't have access to cheap electrical power, they will go back to burning wood or animal dung to cook with and to heat their small huts in the cold night air. There would be no electricity to run a small fridge to keep what little food and medicine they have, from spoiling. These people are already very poor. They can't afford the many unreliable expensive solar panels and wind powered generators. If they don't have access to cheap fossil fuel generators or power plants, you will be sending these people back to the stone age. Many women and children will die from smoke damaged lungs from inhaling the dense smoke from cooking in their tiny huts. Many more will die from spoiled food and medicine because they can't keep these expensive valuable items cold. Is this what you want? Are you going to excuse what you're doing by saying things like " It's no big deal? These people were poor and not worth helping because the world is overpopulated anyway. They won't be missed because they weren't important enough to care about". Will that be your excuse? Maybe in the future, but at this point in time our technology isn't good enough to to provide large, inexpensive, 24 hour reliable power from windmills, watermills, solar panels or solar mirrors etc. Our planet IS NOT having a climate emergency. For 70 years of my life I have seen so many climate predictions be wrong. Not just one, two or three, but every single one of them. After five or six incorrect predictions I quit counting. Please, do some research. If you want the truth, research the scientists that have no skin in the game. These people will tell you the truth because the results of their research will not affect the money they earn or the position they hold. We older people have seen predictions from global warming, global ice age to ozone depletion. Stop scaring the hell out of our children. Please, stop putting such a burden on them. When you see children crying because they think they are going to die in 10 or 12 years, that has got to be child abuse. Are you trying to damage these kids for the rest of their life? Use some common sense. Try and reassure these kids that the world as we know it is not going to end anytime soon. I have lived through so much of this crap that I can pretty much guarantee it. Stop brainwashing the children. Chicken Little was wrong. The sky is not falling. I will be dead in the near future. Cancer and old age are not my friends. Twelve years from now, after I'm gone, I just want you to remember one thing that I said: . "THERE IS NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY OR CRISIS". Note: Stop worrying so much. You will live a longer, happier life.
I'm thankful I won't be around for the next mini ice age.
Coal mining in Hungary – coal reserves discovered in the 1770s, production peak in the 1960s – mined all by 2000. During that we had feudalism, capitalism, national socialism, communism and free market economy, every state from Apostolic Kingdom to peoples republic so it is not the ideology or the political system, all these guys did the mining. Our anthracite (black coal) took 150-200 million years, the brown coal 65-80 million years to form and it took us 230 years to mine and smoke it all… Nobody can grasp millions of years, then think of burning a stash of 60-80 or 150-200 million dollars in 100 USD notes (few cubic meters of printed paper) just to keep warm. Who can seriously deny, that the burning of those fossil coal reserves and the consequent carbon-dioxide increase was not man made (anthropogenic?) We take something from the ground accumulating over hundreds of millions years to smoke it in a few decades??? How is that sustainable??? If 1.2 Celsius global warming vs. 1750 Little Ice Age levels causes already all the firestorms in the Northern hemisphere, Amazonia, California, Siberia, Canada Indonesia and Africa, now Australia and the oceanic anomalies, the melting of the polar ice and glaciers, then this SSP5 horror scenario of 7-8 Celsius degrees warming in the coming 80 years (!!!) equals near-term human extinction, way before 2100. Since everybody talks here about carbon dioxyde: there is the sixth mass extinction of species, the use of plastics since the 1950s and the consequent penetration of micro-plastics everywhere in the biosphere, pollution with 100.000 different kinds of chemicals, urbanization, the 30% loss of arable lands since 1980, the sucking dry of groundwaters globally and consequent freshwater shortages in agriculture and also in metropolitan areas, the unchecked logging of primeval forests, we have lost 46 percent of all forests already since we begun cutting trees, we have cleared 1,3 million square kilometers of forests since 1990, this changes water patterns and weather, overfishing of the oceans, loss of agrobiodiversity since 1900 – we wasted 75 percent of our ancient crop varieties and 30 percent of traditional livestock breeds, mining of mineral resources, to produce the 1,3 billion cars, over 2 billion PCs, the 3,5+ billion smart phones in use, and mountains of obsolete technology, the consequent garbage production, the 450 nuclear reactors, the 14000 nuclear warheads, the consequent introduction of Uranium and Plutonium into the biosphere, the constant electro smog are all MAN MADE being totally independent from Carbon dioxide concentration, and they also lethal for our species even without having added or reduced a single molecule of CO2 !!!!
I was told as a child we would have no ice by now. That we would be out of oil. That life would be unsustainable. Yet here we are in 2020 and nothing has changed.
Global warming is bullshit
Load of nonsense.
There is a severe problem with the ssp5 model!! It’s linear… rather than exponential which will be more realistic…
I just wanted to put a different perspective on future climate projections from current models. I don't know how accurate they will be. I guess time will tell. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/climate-change-worst-case-scenario-now-looks-unrealistic.html
AT LEAST!!! 5°C by 2030!
The sun is heading toward solar minimum now. Sunspot counts were relatively high in 2014, and now they are sliding toward a low point expected in 2019-2020.
Sourse;
https://electroverse.net/the-sun-has-been-spotless-for-224-days-in-2019/
As of Oct 28, 2019 the current stretch of days without any observable spots has reached 25, making for a total of 224 spotless days in 2019 so far (or 74%). This means that 2019 has now surpassed the 222 spotless days observed in 2018, with more than 2 months to go.
Source;
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming
The Maunder Minimum
Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715.
Source;
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
Between 1645 and 1715—during what we now call the “Maunder Minimum†or “Little Ice Ageâ€â€”sunspots were exceedingly rare.
Specifically, there were only about 50 sunspots (instead of the usual 40 to 50 thousand) and harsh winters.
For 70 years, temperatures dropped by 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
Seven decades of freezing weather led to shorter seasons and ultimately food shortages.
Source;
https://www.almanac.com/content/what-are-solar-cycles-and-how-do-they-affect-weather
Solar minimum is the period of least solar activity in the 11 year solar cycle of the Sun. During this time, sunspot and solar flare activity diminishes, and often does not occur for days at a time. The date of the minimum is described by a smoothed average over 12 months of sunspot activity, so identifying the date of the solar minimum usually can only happen 6 months after the minimum takes place. Solar minima is correlated with changes in climate.
Source;
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_minimum
As you can see there has been at least 2 years of very low sun spot activity
This indecates that we are entering a grand solar minimum.
No one knows how long this grand solar minimum will last, but as we know from past grand solar minimums it will have an impact on food production, and it already has.
Food prices will rise as shortages increase. This will cause people to spend more on food and less on other products.
This inturn will cause a slow down in production of non essential goods and lead to an economic slowdown world wide.
Unemployed people, and shotages of food will be a challenge for humanity.
To the 60 plus who voted this down. If you refuse the knowledge your children children's children will be forgotten.
What government's promise and say they will do is generally very different to what they actually do.
jesus Christ if it goes past 2 to 3 degrees were fcked 2050. nobody is going to be around for 8 degrees
I don't expect anything to be done. Several reasons. The biggest is 2100. ALL of us will be dead by then and it's someone else's problem. When you put a number that its in a little over 80 years in the future, PEOPLE DON'T CARE. You're asking people to change their lives for a date so far in the future that no one gives a crap. I cringe whenever I see "in the year 2100 this will happen". What people forget is that its going to be an frightmare in the years WAY before that..WAY before and that assumes these predictions are accurate and they're usually too conservative without taking in other numerous factors. If you listen to Dr Guy McPherson, his data is more sooner than 2100. Try like 2025 or so. Now that doesn't frighten people because well it cant be true because people can discredit science for the past blunders they have made. Suppose this time people like Guy McPherson aren't wrong? Suppose in the next 5-10 years things are going to catastrophically go down hill rapidly? What if this long distance 2100 is now 2025. That would mean its too late already. Many researchers have said the tipping point is long past. Each day nothing is done. Days turn into weeks turn into months and another year is gone. Nothing will get done. Drops in the bucket will not stop climate change anymore than a feather stopping a train going at 90 miles per hour or chewing gum plugging up a collapsing dam. We're screwed, PERIOD and that day or reckoning is coming where there will be no more denial.
Scary scenario indeed! When I look around me here in the UK I don’t see any emergency talks about mitigating co2. We’ve just voted in a conservative government who never once talked about how serious the climate situation is? All they’re interested in is getting Brexit done.
Everyday I see heavy vehicle traffic on the roads, they’re all burning fossil fuels and when I’m out walking I smell the burnt gases from their exhausts pipes. Business as usual we’ve all become totally blind to the problem!
I am interested to know how the Canadian Model fares to the UKESM by the Hadley which has predicted 1.5C by 2024/5? Would you be kind enough @RealNewsNetwork to make a video which brings these scientists together to discuss their findings?
Much like being told animal agriculture is destroying the planet. People rather choose to debate the intricacies when the fact of the matter is that the science proves it’s the single most effective act an individual can take to help mitigate their footprint. But nobody wants to change.. if people can’t even change something so simple, we are truly lost