Study: Loss of Stratocumulus Clouds Could Precipitate Extreme Global Warming

1. the more look into this the more confusd things become..I thought heat being reflected back would lead to more moisture & more cloud

2. I feel very bad for the younger kids and babies being born right now because when they are our age (older) they will have to deal with this issue very hard and put a true end to global warming.

3. Dunning-Kruger effect in abundance here on the comment thread…
   No wonder we're all doomed…

4. Grossly understated. Which is the problem largely with the scientific community, that and its somewhat insular/blinkered approach to scientific disciplines as a whole.
   .
   Here are the facts:
   1. A blue ocean event is imminent in the Arctic ocean; ice-free during the summer season within the next few years, ice-free permanently within the next decade; resulting in the loss of the largest area of albedo (reflectivity of the sun's HF IR radiation back to space) in the northern hemisphere. Resulting in: further warming of the Arctic ocean water column, in turn increasing the thawing of the vast deposits of methane hydrates (clathrates) in the shallow Arctic sediments, in addition to widespread thawing of the permafrosts of the northern tundras, which also contains vast deposits of both CH4 and CO2 by way of microbial release.
   .
   Methane [CH4] is 80 times more potent (per 20 year) than CO2 as a global warming agent. It is estimated that there may exist between 50-500 gigatons of methane sequestered in the Arctic sediments alone… Colloquially termed – 'Methane Clathrate Gun/bomb' – meaning, once it is released there is no method of capture. Even smaller releases of CH4 will substantially increase the rate of global warming. Current understanding is, that the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM – 54My bce) may well have been triggered by such a release of CH4 on a vast scale – the Earth's biosphere is heading for a similar event.
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   2. The Earth's biosphere exists in one of two states of thermo-equilibrium – 'Hot-house' – characterised by no cryosphere – no continental glaciation anywhere on Earth – the last time the planet's biosphere was in this state was during the Mesozoic (250-65My bce) – comprising of the Triassic/Jurassic/Cretaceous periods – where reptiles and non-avian dinosaurs evolved and flourished.
   .
   The other state is – 'Ice-house' – characterised by the presence of a cryosphere [continental ice-sheets, glaciers, sea-ice and permafrosts]. Modern humans emerged at the height of a glacial maximum – Pleistocene. Earth's biosphere is currently in an 'interstadial' (warm period within a glacial). Latest scientific understanding is that this 'interstadial' is now regarded as sustained perennially – meaning no return to a glacial maximum – no more 'ice-ages' (mini or otherwise) within the next thousand years or so. This is as a result of anthropogenic global warming [AGW].
   .
   3. If global temperatures exceed 4 degrees of warming above 1750 baseline, the current anthropogenic mass extinction event will be enhanced, with a massive loss of biodiversity, including animals and plants – especially agriculture at scale. A PETM type event – the highest spike of global temperature ever recorded in the proxy data for at least 2.5 billion years, where temperatures rose by around 6-8 degrees above today will result in the extinction of all extant 'high-order' biota – flora or fauna – vertebrates – animals, mammals, primates, including humans.
   Lower order taxonomic groups will also decline and become extinct (already underway…) – invertebrates, planktons etc…
   .
   4. The world's oceans are also absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. In fact, it is this process that has hitherto staved-off biospheric thermal runaway (accelrated global warming). That process is slowing down, as the oceanic water column becomes saturated with CO2; resulting in a lowering of pH level – turning the oceans acidic – resulting in the loss of phytoplankton vital for the production of oxygen [O2]. Also, with the oceans warming – thermal expansion is increasing sea-level rise.
   .
   5. The cryosphere is now retreating at a faster rate then ever. The three main ice-sheets – Greenland, West and East Antarctica (GIS, WAIS and EAIS respectively) are now under threat from AGW. GIS ice ablation into the North Atlantic is the fastest, followed by the WAIS and some parts of the EAIS. Further increasing sea-level rise and affecting the salinity of the oceans, in turn affecting the Meridional Overturning Current – the global oceanic conveyor system. In effect, this is now shutting down, as more fresh water enters the northern part of the AMOC (Atlantic MOC).
   .
   6. As previously mentioned – humans evolved and emerged during the last glacial maximum. As such humans are far better equipped to survive cooler climates than hotter. The reason should be obvious – if one is cold, one can light a fire, put on more clothing etc… In a hotter climate humans and most other mammals suffer greatly due to heat-exhaustion and the inability to perspire due to increased humidity (wet-bulb effect). In some parts of the world, humans are already undergoing this dynamic and dying…
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   7. This is just the major points of the current state of the biosphere – to this we add – deforestation – especially of the northern boreal forests and the Amazonian arboreal rain-forests, either through human 'enterprise' or indirectly via flash wildfires. The arboreal resources are the Earth's primary means of sequestering atmospheric CO2. Lose the trees – and we effectively lose the ability to regulate CO2. This is already at the stage where the the Amazon rain-forest is fast approaching a state of reversal, where instead of becoming a net abosorber of CO2 it is instead becoming a net producer of CO2…
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   8. To this we add a vast plethora of yet more 'anthropogenic vectors of doom' – such as toxins, pollutants, thinning/loss of ozone layer, O2 depletion, more habitat loss, irradiation (Fukushima Daiichi and many other less documented radionuclide releases to both atmosphere and hydrosphere (all of Earth's watery places). The list is becoming endless…
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   9. There is no effective way to mitigate global warming. Due to the 'residence time' of atmospheric greenhouse gasses (primarilly – CO2, CH4, N2O and water vapour H20), global warming is now regarded as effectively 'locked-in' for at least the next millennia… So all this talk of halting global warming – via geo-engineering – or simply reducing CO2 emissions, growing more trees, is complete hogwash. Not that one should not try at least to buy some time, but the inevitablity of the end of life on Earth is now absolute.
   .
   10. Human population overshoot is ongoing – and for every baby born, a new carbon footprint is started. Human population has exponentially increased over the past two hundred years and although that trent is now linear, the global populace increase by one billion approximately every thirteen years… It is this population expansion that is directely driving global warming and loss of habitat for all other extant species.
   .
   11. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists who devised and maintain (monitor) the 'Doomsday Clock' have now set the clock to 100 seconds before midnight (Doomsday). The closest to 'Doomsday' it has ever been since its inception in 1945. This action was based on both the increased liklihood of global nuclear war and AGW. And no – a global nuclear conflict will not halt global warming, nore will the overdue erruption of Yellowstone Caldera either…
   ============================================================================================================
   Everything I have detailed here is current FACT. If you can handle the science and the time to research and fact check my details, you will likely arrive at the same conclusion as many of us and the some of the science community – That humans are in fact experiencing their final century (if not last few decades) of evolution.
   .
   Whch somewhat makes the mundane issues of politics and current societal state a moot point. One of many reasons why humans will never colonise Mars, let alone further afield.
   .
   The current mass extinction – perpetrated by the actions of humans (anthropogenic), the first such mass extinction perpetrated by a specific species is underway and humans are by no-means exempt.
   ==========================================================================================================
   Humans – Either drunk on hubris, stoned on hopium, in a coma of denial, or a fug of faith (in technology or deities) and mostly oblivious to
   o b l i v i o n

5. Recent conspiracy theories attempt to explain difficult concepts are using observations, select facts and testable theories. The standard condensation expected to be produced by mostly jet aircraft, typically above 'due point', often at cold/humid altitudes, where slight humidity and/or temperature thresholds are exceeded, even when surface humidity might be relatively dry, tipping the vapor channel threshold toward the visible product known as 'persistent condensation'.

   When sufficient persistent and often periodic 'patterns' are produced by potentially well meaning pilots, a deliberate 'effort of influence' appears to be unfolding before our vary eyes. Even if such patterns are on purpose, they are likely the 'innocent' result of a humanitarian effort. The possibilities are wide and difficult to explain. They are probably not the product of a scientist working out of a hollowed out volcano. More likely the difficult to explain mechanics of why a pattern is emerging are as varied as the possible reasons to fly. Most likely such efforts are coincidental to commercial flight, experimental and all with FAA approval. The flights are with advanced flight plan submissions, using defined parameters and within an approved safety corridor.

   Plane exhausts produce condensation persisting for varying lengths and depending upon flight movement, can produce 'patterns and objects, even TicTacToe patterns. We people attribute more importance to most clouds, natural or human. Training in a limited air space may create the patterns mentioned in publications around the world. Although the near absence of condensations trails of late do not correspond to the 30-55 % reduction of commercial flights due to reduced demand during COVID-19.

   Some jet engine protection programs may include the introduction of exhaust blade compressor/fan blade protective lubricant to protect against the corrosive affects of the exhaust gases, colliding with the last blades can produce an improved persistent condensation product, or just the opposite, depending upon weather and the particular additive used.

   Diabolical explanations explaing some persistent condensation products (often referred as 'chemtrals or scientifically as geoengineered products for legitimate purpose, can be explained for the same purpose used on ground based craft, needed and producing odd or unexplainable results. Patterns emerge during flight testing, maintenance or even advertising.

   Private and/or public partnerships can utilize low cost investment in surplus planes, using relatively modest fuel quantities, and even 'mark' their efforts with additives to improve visual tracking. The law does not prohibit experimental flying patterns, experimental or proven 'cloud seeding or elimination' motives.

   Farmers often seek crop watering assistance through cloud retarding/harvesting (storm flow precipitation delivery banking). Such commercial efforts do not seek to 'warm the earth' and are not 'conspiracies'. They are collaborative efforts by experts to improve the planet and the human food chain. Maybe TicTacToe patterns are the first stages of a food watering effort and the honorable goal of 'greening' the planet, week after week, saving people and resources, not trying to 'warm up the planet'.

   Up-jet stream spraying of cloud retardants, like chalky type additive, including aluminum barium oxide or sulfur dioxide, proceed down wind 'release' agents, such as silver iodine (the most common) and others, with excellent results. But such water harvesting is not a 'conspiracy theory' intending to 'doom' the world by increasing the appearance of 'global warming/drying' Water is needed in the former dust-bowl prone Midwest and with its 'breadbasket' appeal, may be a 'case maker' for taking water potential from the desert, where a 10,000,000 gallon desert monsoonal moisture event potential is repackaged for use within the USA breadbasket.

   Moisture from the ocean may migrate toward farming in the Mid-west, but first must cross the deserts of the United States' Southwest and often produce thunderstorms and run out of moisture before combining with mid Gulf of Mexico moisture.

   Farmers operating in the 1920s 'Dust-bowl' prone part of the mid-west USA, and may apply for atmospheric moisture harvesting. The use of rain is much cheaper than pumping from lowering ground water tables. The process after approval may begin with an ample cloud/rain retardant. Once the cell of moisture has moved from someplace like Nevada and released over Colorado with the addition of the reverse additive, such as silver iodine, improving rain chances by 18%-82%, over an area typically spending $8 per acre of irrigated water, to $3 per acre of successful equivalent rainfall during the same important range of dates when water is needed.

   Although not a 100%, with an average to modest 31% success rainfall — per episode attempt, three storms combined may improve precipitation chances and output by upwards of 82%, rainfall averages. And at nearly 1/3 the cost for for irrigating using the depleting high plaine's water table. The successful efforts obviously require long range forecasting, experienced personnel and long range permits and FAA approval of 'experimental/commercial' flying.

   Conspiracies are often seen as crazy and not useful. The legitimate long-term condensation from jet aircraft can be best example that 'conspiracies' do exist, for the right reason. Are such efforts to harm the world so that America stops using coal while China uses it until 2052, or beyond, or are they for useful reasons, such as feeding the nation, the world. The increase CO2 may help plants grow with more vigor, and they in turn feed the other carbon based lifeforms, man. But a grand conspiracy to cripple America while allowing China to use the CO2 to capture the earth's political and economic and military superpower by crippling the USA manufacturing capacity and American auto freedom, may be a little far fetched.

   In conclusion, jets produce moisture by combining hydrogen and oxygen in the engine to produce thrust. The hydrogen carbon molecules keep the hydrogen in a liquid state. When combined, by spark or heat, in the combustion chamber, carbonated water is released. The world may be getting greenhouse gasses from many sources, such as using CO2 fuels, the warm release of natural methane, animals, and just plane old increased cloud cover, a powerful greenhouse process, is reason for concern.

   Are their conspiratorial efforts to use airplanes to warm the earth, possible, but more likely weather changing is occurring from natural variations, like in centuries long gone, but I'd rather bank on aircraft being used to move people, goods and possibly rain to where it is needed the most and let the world enjoy the bounty of harvest.

6. Abrupt thawing. A little known problem….. because they made it up… recently

7. Abrupt thawing. A little known problem….. because they made it up… recently

8. This is pure nonsense! CO2 has no impact on heating. The real so-called "greenhouse gas" is water vapor. Only Greta Thunberg is able to see CO2 in the clouds. Where we live the low clouds are more frequent and it makes the days colder. https://www.dropbox.com/s/5h12p9kl8z4wa1k/TFS_30_years.jpg?dl=0

9. Great interview. Thanks for bringing this to us. 😎

10. Despite Dimitri Lascaris repeated attempts to spin this mechanism into catastrophic global warning that will immediately affect us, Professor Tapio Schneider would have none of it.

    When that fails Dimitrie then falls back on the same old 'feedback loops' to save this interview and still create some global warming hysteria.
    Pathetic and a total failure.

11. So the children of people born today may well see 1200 ppm of CO2 and the loss of stratocumulus cloud cover with a consequent 8 degree Celsius temperature step rise above what would be a very hot planet anyway just from the influence of such a high concentration of greenhouse gas. Interesting. From a human standpoint would there be any humans alive on an earth with such a high concentration of planet heating greenhouse gases to observe this ?

12. the professor needs some coaching on how to explain to little knowledgeable people on his field of expertise (like me) what he knows. eg: well, the conditions on earth will be like the something – something -oceen. for him that is a fountain of data. i have to go and look that up if he doesn't tell me.
    always geatfull for trnn's , journalism, education, ability to find people that do actually know what they are talking about, keeping their guests honest while being interviewed, etc.
    good item none the less, as i am now educated on this important study, on cloud formation not having been a part of models of trying to explain past climate changes. and that it is a variable that needs also be taken into account in current models.

13. February was the coldest month in this severe winter. Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota had their coldest month on record. Two states recorded their coldest temperatures on record. McIntosh, South Dakota sank to −58 °F (−50.0 °C), and Parshall, North Dakota hit −60 °F (−51.1 °C).

14. An example of biased science. Looking for something so finds it. It’s nearly 30 years now no global warming. Clouds require cosmic rays, high sun activity causes solar wind that displaced the cosmic rays. Now we approaching grand solar minimum we will have lower sunspot activity so more cosmic rays so more clouds so more cooling. This is junk science. If you do simple maths and take the earth with no atmosphere at all using ablation formula it’s only 2 degrees variation. For millions of years we have not varied more than plus or minus 2 degrees. We can’t. The only thing that gives us heat is the sun. We are just in a 400 year cycle nothing more and nothing less. The IPCC is specifically scoped to man made climate change. The climate changes all the time and there is nothing we can do about it but adapt. There is an 800 year lag between rises in CO2 and global temperatures. When the ocean warms it releases CO2 it is not the other way around. By 2030 when we are all starving will our carbon credits help us by then? Of course all the money from government is on this and any scientist who dares say something different is outcast.

15. That professor is not really good at communicating ! He also did not offer much extra information but limited himself more or less on answering exactely what he was asked. He might not want to make "unprofessional" speculations if civilization would survive (that was one question he did not answer). He could have an opinion as citizen if not as scientist.

    Among REAL scientists / researches (who submit themselves to peer review) it is a big No-no to make remarks on something outside their area of academic expertise. and they are be training very hesistant to claim certainty even when they have pretty convincing theories and observations in their field of expertise).

    HOWEVER – while they uphold academic restraint – deniers with less than usual STEM knowledge for laypersons have no qualms whatsover to call the cautious scientist dead wrong.

    The scientists that hold each other to a high standard with their claims (what do we know with what degree of certainty) need to consider another scientific insight: homo sapiens is notoriously bad with "getting" statistics and probailities. Regular citizens may understand statistics but on the FELT and EXPERIENCED level statistics does not matter. Another scientific insight: Humans are not rational beings, most of the time we are (also) motivated be mostly unconscious emotions and bias. And the most rational thing is to realize that and take it into account.

    Science and the scientific method and statistics is an artificial structure to eliminate most of the effects of human bias for the sake of increasing our information about "how things really are". That works well enough with the hard sciences and STEM fields. However: social sciences (psychology, sociology, history, economics !!, ….) are a football of politics, ideology, special interests, and the desire of the privileged to maintain the status quo and to "define" "natural" laws – to make sure the status quo is not even questioned.

    Back in the day it was the authority of god that supported a certain societal order – that does not fly anymore, now it is claims that are backed up (allegedly) by science. That explains the discussion about things like the minimum wage (does it really destroy jobs ?), intelligence and performance as an adult in the workplace and in society.

    When we measure the IQ do we really measure "intelligence" ? If a human is well adjusted as adult – how much of that is influenced by societal circumstances ? Because if family, wealth, nutrition as a child (or lead in the water), quality of childcare institutions, school and afterschool programs would have a major impact (much more than genes, race, gender) – then it would be imperativ to INVEST in children especially into those with a less fortunate background. And then there are persons and politicians who are very opposed to such investments – so they are convinced that more or less fortunate outcomes are the merit or flaw of individuals or their genes or their race. So no "welfare" and economic interventions would change the outcomes.

    These are important questions that have been hotly contested for DECADES. One would think they would have pretty good RATIONAL insights by now. Well rationality is easily (and often) overpowered by bias and selfish interests. Intelligence ,education and even academic institutions can be used to justify bias, prejudice and clinging to a certain power structure. Intelligence is not always used as tool to gain objective insights.

    History is written by the winners (it is not an exact science – and / or the findings of historians are ignored outside of their small circles).

    Noam Chomsky: "It is not possible to lie as much in physics as in history*"
    * (or social science or economics).

    we are not talking about some interesting ivory tower issue here. And since his research is likely also publicly funded he would owe it to the audience to communicate BETTER.

16. Duh, the real determiners of climate are sunlight, geographic location, altitude, and proximity of large bodies of water. CO2 has no control of Earth's surface temperature or climate. All these archeological b.s. studies about CO2 controlling climate are backwards, since we know what really determines climate, and CO2 just tags along, increasing its atmospheric concentration as the seas release it during warmer eras, and decreasing its concentration as the seas absorb it during cooler eras. This fake science should be relegated to the funny pages. Read my devastating essay that settles the issue by proving that fundamental physics prohibits CO2 from having any effect on Earth's surface temperatures. http://www.historyscoper.com/climatetlw.html

17. This is what I was thinking..
    The lack of trees.. producing oxygen and absorbing the CO2..
    I wonder, and would like some science done on this, but will the amount of CO2 cause our "spin" to slow? and therefore slow our pivot from one season to the other?

18. the hawk is howling, listen…."and man shall have no dominion. nature is all. all is nature. nature does not make foolish laws."

19. It's not easy interviewing someone regarding the most complex system we know little about (i.e. planetary climate system). I appreciate the efforts. That said, I wish SOMEONE mentioned COe. CO2 is only part of the greenhouse equation. With CH4 rising from 722ppb in pre industrial times to getting close to breaking 2,000 ppb. Methane's GWP10 is over 100 times that of CO2 and with additional heating means more water vapor in the atmosphere which is also a GHG. There are even more GHGs and they all add up to a CO2e number. 1,200 is a lot closer than people think :-/
    For me, the hardest thing to find is a CO2e number that includes water vapor.

20. Someone should mention to Dimitri how credibility is lost, with the unnecessary leading of guests.

21. Could, might I am cold so it has no spin here.

22. What he is telling you is that the human race will be extinct before we reach 1200 ppm of CO2, so it's a moot point.

23. Even if you ignore Tony Heller's spin, hyperbolic use of "poison", and contentions of forced population control, the research he has done to dig up the consensus of climatologists predictions of 50 years ago and scientist predictions going back over 100 years ago, you really can't take any climatologist predictions with any more weight than meteorologists' predictions of the weather.

    Here is the latest from Tony Heller: https://youtu.be/IFlsJ1o3fVc

24. alt right trolls target trrn comment sections heh

25. Regular Clouds or the new metal nucleated ones?

26. Even the title makes no sense. What’s the influence of cosmic rays in cloud formation? You won’t find out here.

27. I live in North Dakota and any-day we get sunny sky we celebrate with joy even if its -40F,

28. So more bad news just it really doesn't matter since there already so much bad news already

29. This is crazy. Taking a concept like this then changing it into a 7 minute sound byte. Even I could understand the flaws of what was said.

    If you search you will find pro warming legit science peer reviewed that takes hours to explain and they are not leaving the impression of what this did. Observation: That time period had huge animal life (dinosaurs) as well as plant life because of the abundance of co2 (plant food). That time period was very hot, because of that heat, the environment has to have co2 levels like that..it's so hot. The other one is mainstream science recognizes the Milankovitch cycles of glaciation, as the not noise main driver (trigger) of glaciation.

30. Thank you for covering climate issues, Dimitri & TRNN.

31. 95% of all greenhouse gases are water vapor. The arctic will be ice free by 2013. 6 more years to go.

32. Always room for a good pun.

33. Just toss the dice i think that's what the plan is I think we have to fix our political system first because it's so broken

34. Methane trapped in permafrost now being released will only exacerbate climate.

35. I could swear the other day I was just thinking that I didn't notice as many clouds. Something seemed odd.

36. What role do cosmic rays play in this? There has been researching of evidence that fluctuations caused by changes in solar activity play a role in climate change. Do you agree?

37. Ohm my gooood AOC was right, the world ends in 12 years!.. Im old enough to remember folks in 1990 saying world will end in 10 years. It's funny the progressives left socialists want people to stop eating farting cows and instead eat insects! Now they invent the disaperence of clouds as world end in 12 years. Thinking on commie level will always end in disasters. in 2 billion years earth will be swallowed by the expanding sun what are the lefties progressives going to do about that?

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